News & Press

April 23rd, 2025

Rogers & Brown

Written By: Gabe McGann, VP of International Operations at Rogers & Brown

The New Normal in Global Supply Chains

By now, we are all adjusting to the “new normal” of supply chains brought on by tariffs impacting most goods imported into the United States. With these increased costs, cargo volumes for services calling the United States ports have deteriorated. Nowhere has this been more significant than the Trans-Pacific trade lanes.

Over the past few weeks, there have been over 80 blank or canceled sailings for Transpacific services calling China and Southeast Asia ports. Freight that was still green-lighted to ship to the U.S. has been further delayed as vessels are quickly being taken out of the rotations. Over the next four to six weeks, many more blank and canceled sailings are expected as importers put a hold on cargo in mass quantities. It won’t be long before U.S. consumers start to feel the effects, through:

• Limited availability of everyday products
• Price increases
• Certain goods are disappearing from store shelves

The Ongoing Reality of a Trade War

This is all the reality of a trade war, and we are only scratching the surface of the trickle-down effects and collateral damage that comes with it. If you are keeping track, you are likely having to deal with some or all of the following:

1. Significantly increased landed costing
2. Bond sufficiency issues
3. Delays in transit due to adjusted service rotations
4. Need for bonded warehousing to try to defer duty payments
5. Uncertainty of what comes next

It is also worth noting that if tariffs were to soften on China quickly, you could see a situation where the ocean and air carriers would take full advantage of an influx of demand that had been held. They have already reduced capacity in the Trans-Pacific trade lane, and any chance to use that to their advantage will be taken. Recall, as recently as this time last year, when rates were also relatively low in April. Fears of port strikes pushed demand into a peak season well ahead of the normal seasonal trends. Rates skyrocketed in May and June, and space was at a premium. It won’t take much to recreate a similar situation if people feel there is a window to rush cargo into the U.S. from Asia.

Adapting to Unpredictable Tides

Nobody knows where we will land and what the end game looks like. Currently, we are all left to deal with the ever-changing tide. Remaining vigilant and looking for the opportunities that difficult times bring appears to be the best course, but doing so is easier said than done. At some point, we will settle into a rhythm, and global trade will continue. However, it will likely never be the same as it was even four months ago.

My hope is that Rogers & Brown has been helpful, supportive, cooperative, and, most of all, a trusted partner to our loyal customers during these rapid changes. We have weathered some of the storm, but more will come, and unexpected side effects of these tariffs will emerge.